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05.10.2026

Limiting Overshoot - Waste Management's Pathway to 1.5°C

- Only If We Act Now

Portrait Of Children
Portrait Of Children

München (Munich), 05.10.2026 (PresseBox) - On 2 September 2026, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published its new report, Limiting Overshoot - Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return. Its message is severe: exceeding the 1.5°C global warming threshold is no longer something we can assume will be avoided. The world is now heading towards an overshoot, potentially within this decade.

The report is not a declaration of defeat; it is a call to change the way we think about climate action.

Under current climate policies and measures, global warming is projected to reach around 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels. Even in a more optimistic scenario, in which countries fully implement their existing national climate plans and achieve their additional net-zero commitments, warming could still peak at around 1.8°C.

UNEP therefore describes a new pathway: "Overshoot, Peak and Decline.”

Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director said,

"Every fraction of a degree avoided and every year by which overshoot is shortened will save lives, protect ecosystems and reduce economic losses.”

She also highlights that

"We must deliver rapid and deep cuts to CO2 , methane and other greenhouse gases immediately. … decisions taken now and in the next few years will determine whether viable options remain to reverse warming towards 1.5°C. So, I call on governments—and on everyone with the power to effect change—to act with urgency and determination. This is not the future we sought. A return to 1.5°C is not assured. But limiting the magnitude, duration and consequences of overshoot, while preserving the possibility of bringing temperatures back down, is the best remaining option to protect vulnerable people, reduce losses and secure a livable future for all”.

Regarding to Waste Management an excerpt from the report on page 50 on methane reads:

"Urgent reductions in methane and other short-lived climate pollutants are needed, … Methane contributes around 0.5°C of current global warming (IPCC 2021; UNEP 2025c) and early reductions can significantly lower peak warming while delivering health co-benefits (McKeough 2022; Smith and Mathison 2024; UNEP 2025c). Early mitigation requires combined supply- and demand-side action.”

Waste management role in the overshoot pathway:

The transition towards a lower-emission waste system is not only about recycling rates, waste prevention or circularity — important as all of these are. It is also about managing the climate impact of the waste that still exists after RRR.

That means reducing the amount of biodegradable material going to landfill wherever possible. It means improving waste segregation. It means preventing food waste. And where landfill remains necessary, it means capturing methane effectively and managing sites in ways that minimise emissions. These are practical measures that can be implemented / started today.

These measures may not, on their own, determine the future of the global climate. But that is precisely the point of the UNEP report: climate change is determined by the cumulative effect of many actions across many sectors.

UNEP's proposed response therefore rests on three interconnected pillars: aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions; the removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere; and massive investment in adaptation.

Methane reduction sits firmly within the first of these pillars — and waste management is part of that equation.

The remaining choices still matter.

The difference between 1.8°C and 2.6°C is enormous. So is the difference between a brief overshoot and decades of elevated temperatures. Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions avoided today reduces the scale of the challenge tomorrow.

Inger Andersen's warning is worth keeping in mind: "A return to 1.5°C is not assured.”

That uncertainty makes action more urgent, not less.

The climate challenge has changed. Our response must change with it.

Ansprechpartner

Fernanda Butron
Zuständigkeitsbereich: Content Manager

Über WasteCulture:

WasteCulture is an independent knowledge brand and B2B platform fostering a global circular waste culture. Since 2017, it has connected over 5,000 international experts to share best practices, research, and insights. Operated by WtERT Germany GmbH, the platform promotes dialogue among waste management stakeholders — including scientists, industry representatives and policymakers — to advance sustainable waste management worldwide.

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